Housing Prices In Turkey: Macroeconomic Factors and Structural Changes
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Konut Fiyatları, Yapısal Kırılmalar, Makroekonomik Göstergeler, Zaman Serisi AnaliziAbstract
This study examines the effects of macroeconomic variables on housing prices in Turkey within the framework of structural breaks. Given Turkey’s geopolitical position and its frequent economic fluctuations driven by both domestic and external dynamics, the originality of this study lies in conducting all analyses by incorporating structural breaks. The empirical analysis utilizes monthly data from 2015 to 2023, employing time series methods to investigate the determinants of housing prices. By considering structural breaks in all analyses, the study emphasizes long-term and permanent effects rather than short-term economic shocks. The analyses are conducted within the framework of supply-side and demand-side variables. The results indicate a significant causal relationship between cement production, construction cost index, and the housing price index among supply-side variables. However, no direct relationship is found between building permits and the housing price index. On the demand side, a significant causal relationship is identified between the housing price index and all demand-side variables. The findings highlight that structural breaks are a crucial determinant of the housing market and provide valuable insights for policymakers regarding the long-term effects of macroeconomic variables.
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